#34: Turkey's Geopolitics. Taiwan's Future. Europe's Bloody History. 07.7.31=2 10pm.'

Taiwan's Future, by Richard W. Hartzell
http://www.taiwanbasic.com/notes/rwh.htm

'Preliminary Explanations and Guidelines -- on future development in Taiwan'

"" Section 1. Introduction

Over the past six years I have been actively involved in researching the international legal status of Taiwan. During this time I often put summaries of my research findings together and mailed them to local Taiwanese Legislators and other important officials, both current and retired. In June of 2003, I received a telephone call from former President Lee Teng-hui, and we talked about my research for about twenty minutes. Then in late November, 2004, the former President invited me to a three hour meeting where we discussed my research in more detail. Although many members of the Taiwanese media were present at that meeting, there was no real "reaction" by the TV, newspapers, or news magazines at that time.

However, during that late November 2004 period former President Lee also asked one of his associates, Dr. Roger Lin, to contact me and overview my findings in more depth. Dr. Lin had obtained a Ph.D. in international law from Me-jo University in Nagoya, Japan, and was very interested in my "laws of war" approach to solving Taiwan's identity crisis. After an initial meeting with Dr. Lin in January 2005, he and I decided to combine our efforts to try to push forward with this agenda. After some negotiations, we were very lucky to obtain the support of the Taiwan Defense Alliance, and in late February 2005 we began giving speeches throughout Taiwan, as well as writing many Chinese language articles for the local newspapers and magazines. We also met with Mr. Kwang-Ming Koo, a well-respected local political activist, and he encouraged us to use every channel to make our research results more widely known. With the assistance of the Taiwan agent for the Washington Post, we were able to purchase space to publish a full explanation of Taiwan's international legal position in the print edition.

I wrote out an essay of nearly 3500 words to fulfill that purpose. However, I suspected that many people would ask the obvious question of "Where do we go from here?" and so I decided to put together some detailed comments on related matters.

As a result, I spent several weeks coming up with these preliminary explanations and guidelines. While these are all made in good faith, it must be recognized that I am currently in no official position to implement any of these instructions, and if they come to be regarded as impractical, unworkable, or otherwise off the mark, then I must accept fully responsibility.

Sincerely,

Richard W. Hartzell
August 15, 2005
Taipei, Taiwan cession ""
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Who Hartzell is and what he has done for Taiwan:
http://www.taiwankey.net/dc/showtime.htm

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'Mass Grave Sheds Light on Europe's Bloody History', by David Crossland in Berlin:
http://tinyurl.com/2t3rzn

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Geopolitics of Turkey [and Japan?]
The "Japanese" left the "Turks" to the east, across Siberia, Mongolia, Manchuria, and Korea, in ancient times, it has been told somewhere:

1) ' The Geopolitics of Turkey's Accession to the European Union ', by Saul B. Cohen; Source: "Eurasian Geography and Economics", V. 45, # 8, Dec. 2004 , pp. 575-582(8); Published by Bellwether Publishing:
ingentaconnect: http://tinyurl.com/2okalp

"" Abstract:
A prominent American geographer discusses the geopolitics of Turkey's accession to the European Union in conjunction with comments on the preceding paper in this issue. The author focuses on Turkey's position on the proposed European Defense and Security Force, on containing Iran's nuclear weapons development, the Israeli-Palestinian Arab conflict, and on military penetration of Central Asia by the US. He briefly covers relations between the European Union and China, as well as Turkey's economic orientation. Also noted in the discussion are the country's heavy dependence on natural gas imported from Russia and oil flows through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline. Turkey's possible membership in the European Union is thought to enhance the global geopolitical equilibrium. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: O10, O18, R10. 10 references.
Keywords: TURKEY; CENTRAL ASIA; EUROPEAN UNION; GEOPOLITICS; IRAN; MUSLIMS
Document Type: Research article: The full text is free.
View now: 135.3kb ""

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2) ' The Geopolitics of Turkey ', by George Friedman:

"" Rumors are floating in Washington and elsewhere that Turkey is preparing to move against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), an anti-Turkish group seeking an independent Kurdistan in Turkey. One report, by Robert Novak in the Washington Post, says the United States is planning to collaborate with Turkey in suppressing the PKK in northern Iraq, an area the PKK has used as a safe-haven and launch pad to carry out attacks in Turkey. ""
... ...
"" The United States and Iran have been talking -- just recently engaging in seven hours of formal discussions. But Iran, betting that the United States will withdraw from Iraq, is not taking the talks as seriously as it might. The United States has few levers to use against Iran. It is therefore not surprising that it has reached out to the biggest lever.

In the short run, Turkey, if it works with the United States, represents a counterweight to Iran, not only in general, but also specifically in Iraq. From the American point of view, a Turkish invasion of northern Iraq would introduce a major force native to the region that certainly would give Iran pause in its behavior in Iraq. This would mean the destruction of Kurdish hopes for independence, though the United States has on several past occasions raised and then dashed Kurdish hopes. In this sense, Novak's article makes a great deal of sense. The PKK would provide a reasonable excuse for a Turkish intervention in Iraq, both in the region and in Turkey. Anything that blocks the Kurds will be acceptable to the Turkish public, and even to Iran.

It is the longer run that is becoming interesting, however. If the United States is not going to continue counterbalancing Iran in the region, then it is in Turkey's interest to do so. It also is increasingly within Turkey's reach. But it must be understood that, given geography, the growth of Turkish power will not be confined to one direction. A powerful and self-confident Turkey has a geographical position that inevitably reflects all the regions that pivot around it.

For the past 90 years, Turkey has not played its historic role. Now, however, economic and politico-military indicators point to Turkey's slow reclamation of that role. The rumors about Turkish action against the PKK have much broader significance. They point to a changing role for Turkey -- and that will mean massive regional changes over time.
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